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Triple Threat: Cal

THURSDAY RESULTS: Oregon State 62 -- Stanford 50

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CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS: Since we last met

CAL: (5-5, 15-8, 36 RPI )-Saturday 2/14 3:30pm PST Haas Pavilion

LAST MEETING: 77-71 OSU (January 9th at Gill Coliseum)

RECORD SINCE: 3-3

BIGGEST WIN SINCE: vs. Arizona (January 23rd) 74-73

HOT HAND: JAYLEN BROWN 6’7’’ FR W/P 18.2 pts 3.2 rebs 2.8 asst 10.2 FTA

X-FACTOR: JORDAN MATHEWS 6’4’’ JR W 14.5 pts 19 3FGs

WHAT TO LOOK FOR: Cal’s lofty preseason accolades have given way to up & down play while star guard Tyrone Wallace has sat injured since January 15th. Cal’s do-it-all guard was averaging 15 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds before breaking his hand last month.

Since losing to OSU on January 9th, Cal’s field goal and three-point defense has remained among the league’s best. Their 3-3 mark over that span can be attributed more so to their offensive struggles.

Filling in for the versatile Wallace has been steady, but limited Sam Singer in the point guard role. While Singer has been steady, he’s not the playmaker that Wallace is and the rest of the Bears have been pressing. Cal has only shot over 43% twice and has had double digit turnovers 4 times.

Carrying the load has been one and done forward Jaylen Brown and his 18 points per game. Cal needs to find a way to be more prolific on the offensive end if they’re going to get back into the top half.

Junior Jordan Mathews is as deadly of a three point threat as there is in the league and both Ivan Rabb & Brown can produce in the paint. However, without Wallace, Cal has struggled to get role players like Jabari Bird involved.

OSU’s match-up Saturday with Cal appears to be a line in the sand game for two teams aiming for a top 6 seed in Vegas. (check into The Lodge Saturday morning for a game prediction.)

Stretch Run: How many wins do the Beavers have left?

With six conference games remaining, each one will have a huge impact on both PAC 12 Tournament seeding and post-season resume.

As far as the PAC 12 Tournament is concerned, finishing in the top 4 and receiving a bye will likely be out of reach. However, all is not lost: a 5th place finish would produce a first round match-up with the league’s only true cellar dweller in the Washington State.

That being said, I also see promise in the 6th seed which matches up with #11 (likely ASU) and avoids #1/#2 until the semi-finals. Unfortunately, it’s looking like they’d need 9-10 wins to get into the top half. By this point in the season we know much more about who Oregon State (and the rest of the league) is and how they are vulnerable.

The recipe for defeating OSU is pretty clear cut. You need effective three point shooting & offensive rebounding against the zone, and the ability to limit turnovers against the zone press/half court traps.

The following projections take into account the following factors: game location, opponent three point shooting production, opponent offensive rebounding percentages, opponent’s field goal defense (opponents effective FG%), opponent turnovers, and style of play.

Chance for Oregon State to win
Most to Least Likely to Win Triple Threat Early Line

Washington State

+7

Washington

+1.5

@ UCLA

-5.5

@Cal

-6

@USC

-6.5

@Oregon

-8.5

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